I agree with the theory that points=points, Cricket... however, my play experience does not entirely bear that out.
In my experience, all other things being equal, higher tech fleets TEND to outperform lower tech fleets (unless the higher tech fleet pretends its a seeking weapon, closes, and swaps licks at point blank range).
In general, Higher Tech fleets have...
1.) Faster ships. This gives them an initiative advantage.
2.) Tougher Ships. This multiplies the initative advantage, due to the fact that they retain their firepower, and more importantly mobility, longer.
3.) Longer Ranged Weapons. Even without the "Range 30 butt-shooting" style play, attacking effectively first is always good. A higher tech fleet will tend to eliminate some of its enemies firepower in unanswered volleys.
4.) Broader Arc Weapons: Combines very nicely with #1 above.
5.) More weapon modifiers: Even elminating abusive combinations, well chosen weapon mods are a force multiplier, especially when you control the pacing and range of the battle to maximize your advantages. See #1 and #3 above.
The Lower Tech Fleet has:
1.) More hulls. LOTS more hulls. This can be very good, but also tends to result in faster loss of firepower (Most ships have weapons left when the last hull box goes).
2.) More hull boxes. LOTS more hull boxes. Similar to #1, above, but makes the lower tech fleet alot more resilient against bad luck, and causes it to do well if it can get to point blank and slug.
3.) More raw dice of damage, though less modified. A Tech level -1 fleet with unmodified medium-to-short narrow arc weapons will be throwing Buckets O Dice. Buckets. And any high tech ship that lets a -1 Tech fleet get to close range and in arc gets EXACTLY what it deserves.
Thus, if they both just go for the gusto, it tends to balance out. But the higher tech fleet gets to play range games, it gets to pick range and timing, its probably got lots of neat tech toys (ECM is CRIPPLING to most low tech fleets, which already tend to have short range and not-great to-hit numbers).
As a result, the higher tech fleet, despite being 'points equal', TENDS to be advantaged, at least in the general condition 'open or at least large map, no VC's other than killing the other guy' condition.
If you nail the high tech fleets foot down, by giving it a convoy or a base or an invasion force to protect... or even by forcing IT to go do something within the range of the low-tech-fleets guns... or set a clock running in the background... then it works out alot better, too.
An unsatsifying answer, but I wonder how many of the percieved problems with SM go away if we set scenarios and scenario objectives more often?