Topic: Pre-WW1 economies

As mentioned in a different thread, I've picked up a book of historical stats for world economies (one of the benefits to working on a college campus!)

Anyway, I'm wondering if the GDP is a good method to gauge the potential sizes of various countries' ether fleets. To get things started, here's the 1913 GDPs for the nations currently represented in IS (in millions of 1990 $):

ABC Powers: 57,509 (includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile)
Austria: 39,898 (includes Hungary)
China: 241,344
France: 171,874 (includes Algeria, Tunisia, and Vietnam)
Germany: 237,332
Italy: 95,487
Japan: 80,331 (includes South Korea)
Russia: 232,351 (actually "the former USSR", and needs to be split between Reds and Whites)
Spain: 41,653
Turkey: 40,588 (actually "15 West Asian countries", most of which were part of the Ottoman Empire)
United Kingdom: 506,309 (includes India, Ireland, Canada, Australia & NZ)
United States: 517,383

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

Interesting figures there.  Any data on South America?

And how much of that would be changed by the Invasion?  Sure, it failed, but it also hurt some countries pretty badly, the UK in particular.

Rich

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

hundvig wrote:

And how much of that would be changed by the Invasion?  Sure, it failed, but it also hurt some countries pretty badly, the UK in particular.

Dunno. I had been assuming that the Invasion focused on the population centers, in order to deal a "knockout blow"... the ten largest cities in 1900 were:

London, United Kingdom    6,480,000
New York, United States    4,242,000
Paris, France    3,330,000
Berlin, Germany    2,707,000
Chicago, United States    1,717,000
Vienna, Austria    1,698,000
Tokyo, Japan    1,497,000
St. Petersburg, Russia    1,439,000
Manchester, United Kingdom    1,435,000
Philadelphia, United States    1,418,000

But we've also had 10 years to recover, so I don't know how to reflect the impact of the Martians...

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

And for the proposed Balkan League: 59,495 (includes Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Yugoslavia). Compare to Turkey's 40,588, and they can make life difficult...

If you exclude Romania, things are more even, as the Balkans come back down to 37,685.

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

Thinking about this more... what if we apply some type of "industrial factor" to account for the variables involved in this exercise?

For example, a country that is completely industrialized and able to convert all of its GDP into materials useful for ether-fleet building would be x1, while a mostly agrarian economy that must trade for the stuff it needs might be at x1/4.

Another factor to consider, thinking back to Todd's post on the subject (which I can't find right now), is the motivation factor -- how important is it for the given country to be in space? Again, this can be between x1/4 and x1.

Thus, let's assume that the Brits are still recovering from the devestation of the Invasion, so they get an industrial factor of x3/4; however, they see the Space Race as vital to their continued existance, so their motivation is x1. This means their final economic value is 506,309 x 3/4 x 1 = 379,732.

On the other hand, the Germans are still recovering as well, but faster, so they get an industrial factor of x4/5; at the same time, the Space Race is seen as just an extension of the Kaiser's naval fascination, so their motivation is lower than Britain's, say again x4/5. Their final economic value becomes 151,892.

Or am I just being silly about this?

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

I would be hesitant to tie GDP directly to Ether-fleet strength.  GDP is not always a good indication of goverment wealth or industrial capacaity.  China a good example- high GDP, poor industrial development.  Another example is that Spain is slightly wealthier then Austro-Hungry by GDP, but the Austrian goverment historically had far more money to play with (larger army and navy, better developed civil service) due to different tax and development policies.  Finally, what each nation is willing to spend on defense is a factor as well- the US and the UK are fairly close in GDP, but the % that the UK spent on defense was much higher in this time period, so thier military power was correspondingly greater.

I think a better approach would to be see what each nation sees as it's security needs and how it should meet them.  For example, if you have historically poor relations with another country (or a present point of contention) and they have an ether fleet consisting of X, then you better also have X or something that can counter X.  Another example is that the nations currently mining the earth-following asteriods (can't recall the name) will need plenty of smaller ships for escort duty, and nations that don't will need a smaller number of raiders to disrupt those convoys....  Spain's lunar adventure will give them thier own unique set of security requirements, and so on.  I could see GDP being a brake on nations getting too ambitous/large for their size.

And for the proposed Balkan League: 59,495 (includes Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Yugoslavia). Compare to Turkey's 40,588, and they can make life difficult...

If you exclude Romania, things are more even, as the Balkans come back down to 37,685.

Actually, I'd pull Greece, have it be an ally and not a member and leave Romania in.  That way the League is closer to the White Russian sphere of influence (both geographically and politically).  Don't know what that does the GDP.

EDIT: The multiplying factors is an interesting idea and does answer some the issues above.  But I really do feel that we're otherthinking the issue and simply setting the fleet strength at what we need it to be in order to be interesting but not over the top is a better choice.

-Will

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

wminsing wrote:

Actually, I'd pull Greece, have it be an ally and not a member and leave Romania in.  That way the League is closer to the White Russian sphere of influence (both geographically and politically).  Don't know what that does the GDP.

Makes it 50,860.

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

wminsing wrote:

I think a better approach would to be see what each nation sees as it's security needs and how it should meet them.

Indeed... but (a) I love objective statistics... smile and (2) I don't know that there's any available numbers on money collected by the Government of different countries.

Hopefully, something like the industrial and motivation factors listed above can accomplish what you're suggesting.

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

Rory Hinnen wrote:
kevinsmith67206 wrote:

> > In my opinion it's not. At least not as the primary driver
> for ether
> > capability.
> > I think you need to look at a nation's existing military technology
> > (naval and land) during the time frame you're talking
> about. And then
> > factor in its GDP, which it would be using to buy ether
> capability if
> > it wasn't producing it itself.

> Something else to consider is that landlocked nations that
> might not have had the interest in a Navy will be quite
> interested in Ether fleets. It would be a means of equalizing
> thier standing with nations that had access to oceanic trade routes.

This point was mentioned when I was considering using Jane's (or Conway's) as a starting place for ether-fleet sizes... and it made sense then.

But after more research, I'm beginning to wonder...

Name a country that didn't have a sizeable fleet in WW1. Then tell me why that country should be a major player. The only one I can come up with is China; and they are a major player because we said so in the timeline, not because we have any historical reason for it.

It would seem that having a fleet was a necessary component of being a Power-- and that makes sense, considering a fleet was necessary for gaining (and keeping) colonies. Which itself was a prime reason for Germany's belligerence at the time -- she felt cut out of the colonial race due to her lack of a fleet and the stranglehold she felt from Britain.

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

Makes it 50,860.

Hmmm, still pretty high.  If we stick with the GDP approach I might have to re-think my alternative Balkan League history.


Indeed... but (a) I love objective statistics...  and (2) I don't know that there's any available numbers on money collected by the Government of different countries.

Hopefully, something like the industrial and motivation factors listed above can accomplish what you're suggesting.

I don't recall much of my economics, but does't GDP measure consumer spending, local investment and goverment spending?  If so, that means GDP really isn't a great measure of a nation's wealth in terms of producing a military-industrial complex at all, since goverment spending is already accounted for (aka GDP consumes the goverment's wealth, it doesn't create it).  If we are going to pick a statisitic to base assumptions I think it would be better to grab something that is more directly applicable, such as tons of manufactured/industrial goods produced anually or something along those lines.

The factors do help, but I still think it's a lot of work for something that could just as easily be done without any calculations at all, just level headed extrapolation.  I guess I'm not so much opposed as I am not grasping the necessity of locking into such a system.

As for the objective nature of the statistics, I've found that objectiveness has very little to do with military budgets....  lol

-Will

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

wminsing wrote:

I don't recall much of my economics, but does't GDP measure consumer spending, local investment and goverment spending?

According to Wikipedia:

The GDP of a country is defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.

The factors do help, but I still think it's a lot of work for something that could just as easily be done without any calculations at all, just level headed extrapolation.  I guess I'm not so much opposed as I am not grasping the necessity of locking into such a system.

Well, I'm not talking about locking it in, but using this as a guideline. As for a lot of work, well, I'd rather have our level-headed extrapolation based on some form of reality, even if it isn't perfect... wink

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

Rory Hinnen wrote:

> You don't think the Germans, with thier tiny access to the
> ocean and the need to sail past Britian to access the rest of
> the world, wouldn't see the ether as even more valuable than
> ocean transportation? The Kaiser was quite the lover of
> shiny/fast/cool.

No, actually, I do think the Germans would see the ether as a Godsend (thus the name of the asteroid cluster, Kaiser-Freude).

But the Germans also have the industrial capacity to follow up on that, as evidenced by their large surface fleet by the time WW1 comes around. My argument is that there aren't any non-naval nations in this period that would have the capacity to jump into the Space Race.

> Every little country that could, would see this as a chance
> to catch up with the big boys. Hungarian Ether Fleet?
> Belorus? I doubt that the Arabs could put aside thier tribal
> conflicts long enough to build an Ether navy, but perhaps
> under the guidance of Lawrence....

And maybe lots of little nations will try to throw up a ship or two... but the sizeable fleets will be limited to a select few nations -- and I suspect those select few include only the ones currently in the game, plus the USA and France. Maybe the Balkan League, maybe one or two more.

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

http://mj12games.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=797&start=15

There's the topic where I was talking about economics/ industry-tech/ and political factors Dan. wink

I think you're on the right track with the modifiers and such. smile  Maybe able to simplify down to a general 1-10 or 1-20 rating on the GDP....so Britain with it's 500+ may be a 5 or 6 base.  Smaller numbers being easier to work with. smile


Playing devil's advocate: I can see one issue/question arising here...and that is how do the ship point values tie into the GDP/Fleet factor?  Is there a percentage of the GDP that will be used to provide for the fleet?

Theoretical Discussion:
If we have a 225 point BB...then having this cost $225000 (or 2 if simplified).  For a small country with a raw GDP of only $50000 (or 0.5), this ship proves a significant investment, consuming 4 years of raw GDP plus funding for maintenance, repairs, and crew.  I would think that no country is going to spend more twice it's GDP on single ship in a shot (which in itself would do serious harm to it's economy)....upkeep costs on the fleet should hover between 10% & 25% of the GDP at best without significant reasons (such as Spain's desperate grasp at glory and controlling the moon...the King is committing nearly half of his GDP in military upkeep)

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

If we have a 225 point BB...then having this cost $225000 (or 2 if simplified). For a small country with a raw GDP of only $50000 (or 0.5), this ship proves a significant investment

Could one assume that ships constructed during 1904-5 (the first IS book) could be picked up at a cheaper price 10 years on (since we seem to be discussing the economies of these countries at the brink of the first World War)?

Could congeve rockets (1904-05) be picked up cheaper than hale rockets (1908-09)?

Or is every technology meant to be available at the same time? And does every nation have to be at the top of the technological tree?

Would a 225 point BB with all the bells and whistles cost the same as a 225 point BB with just guns and torpedoes? Since the construction system allows one to arrive at the same point total in a variety of different ways, then surely something else has to be factored into the economic cost of warships.

Mike B.

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

cricket wrote:

Thinking about this more... what if we apply some type of "industrial factor" to account for the variables involved in this exercise?

For example, a country that is completely industrialized and able to convert all of its GDP into materials useful for ether-fleet building would be x1, while a mostly agrarian economy that must trade for the stuff it needs might be at x1/4.

Another factor to consider, thinking back to Todd's post on the subject (which I can't find right now), is the motivation factor -- how important is it for the given country to be in space? Again, this can be between x1/4 and x1.

Thus, let's assume that the Brits are still recovering from the devestation of the Invasion, so they get an industrial factor of x3/4; however, they see the Space Race as vital to their continued existance, so their motivation is x1. This means their final economic value is 506,309 x 3/4 x 1 = 379,732.

On the other hand, the Germans are still recovering as well, but faster, so they get an industrial factor of x4/5; at the same time, the Space Race is seen as just an extension of the Kaiser's naval fascination, so their motivation is lower than Britain's, say again x4/5. Their final economic value becomes 151,892.

Or am I just being silly about this?

Actually, I'm thinking this is the way to do things like this, though you may have to adjust your fudge factors....

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

If we do use the GDP to help determine fleet sizes I'd suggest having GDP determine a total 'tonnage ratio', not points.  I think the amount of shipping tonnage that a nation could construct would be as big or a bigger limit on fleet size then pure buying power (for the big boys like Britain or Germanyn in particular).  If a nation is willing to spend more then others on thier fleet, well we have the adjustment modifiers to GDP to reflect that.  Maybe it would even be a good idea to establish a difference (just a modifier would do probably) between nations that build thier own hulls and nations that have to purchase them.

In any event, how should we go about establishing the modifiers that are used to adjust GDP?  What's worthy of a positive or negative modifer?

Also, just another thought I've had- are we actually designing every ship for each navy?  One thing I'm worried about is that if we say 'here's how big every fleet is, and here's all thier ships' we might discourage new people from designing thier own vessels inadvertently (since with the official calculations there is no more room for new ships).  Should we esablish a fleet point or hull limit and then leave some of that space 'empty' so players can feel like they can fill that space up with thier own designs?  I know a 'full canon list' of ships won't discourage some players from designing thier own anyway, but it will certaintly discourage others....  Just a worry I have.

-Will

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

wminsing wrote:

Also, just another thought I've had- are we actually designing every ship for each navy?  One thing I'm worried about is that if we say 'here's how big every fleet is, and here's all thier ships' we might discourage new people from designing thier own vessels inadvertently (since with the official calculations there is no more room for new ships).  Should we esablish a fleet point or hull limit and then leave some of that space 'empty' so players can feel like they can fill that space up with thier own designs?  I know a 'full canon list' of ships won't discourage some players from designing thier own anyway, but it will certaintly discourage others....  Just a worry I have.

FWIW, I'm already playing in my own universe part of the time.  IS has been very handy for playing those space battles I always wanted to do in the Space 1889 setting.  Well, Space 1905-ish, really, but still...

So canon designs are just timesavers for me when I want a ship quick and don't feel like making my own.

Rich

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

wminsing wrote:

If we do use the GDP to help determine fleet sizes I'd suggest having GDP determine a total 'tonnage ratio', not points.

That's sorta my thinking... but even this is getting too specific for what I had in mind.

I was simply trying to find a reliable and somewhat "realistic" way of ranking the relative sizes of standing fleets.

For example, if Britain has a higher modified GDP than France, then Britain's ether fleet should be larger than France's. I'm not trying to create a campaign system...

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

That's sorta my thinking... but even this is getting too specific for what I had in mind.

I was simply trying to find a reliable and somewhat "realistic" way of ranking the relative sizes of standing fleets.

For example, if Britain has a higher modified GDP than France, then Britain's ether fleet should be larger than France's. I'm not trying to create a campaign system...

LOL, ok, this is sort of what I wanted to hear anyway!  lol

In that case maybe we should just fix Britain's fleet as a reference point and scale everyone else around them?

-Will

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

wminsing wrote:

In that case maybe we should just fix Britain's fleet as a reference point and scale everyone else around them?

That would be the easiest thing to do, yes.

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

Rory Hinnen wrote:

> I'm going to bring up another game system now, forgive me.

BLASPHEMER!

wink

> In Battlefleet Gothic, one of the strengths of the game (in my
> opinion) is the fleet composition system. They just provide a
> loose system that says, "if you want the big ship, you have
> to pad your force with some small ships". I think IS could
> benefit from something like that.

Oddly enough, this is where my thinking had been going as well...

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

cricket wrote:
Rory Hinnen wrote:

> In Battlefleet Gothic, one of the strengths of the game (in my
> opinion) is the fleet composition system. They just provide a
> loose system that says, "if you want the big ship, you have
> to pad your force with some small ships". I think IS could
> benefit from something like that.

Oddly enough, this is where my thinking had been going as well...

I'd be okay with a bit more structure to fleet selection, but the rather rigid "ratio" system in BFG would be going a little too far IMO.  It's worth remembering that BFG's fleet lists were designed in part to ensure sales of the cruisers, which were "priority" items for GW...the plastic ones *had* to sell big to pay for their molds, and the metal ones had the best profit margin of anything in the line.

But yes, forcing players to field some escort craft for their battleships would be nice.

Rich

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

Maybe use Janes and the GDP to estimate how many capitol ships a nation could support then set a percentage range for number of cruisers and escorts from that.

So if Spain can support only 5 capitol ships, her fleet may be 35-45% cruisers and the remainder escorts...(poor example, but illustrates the thinking)

(Personally though, I'm still in favor of the GDP modified by Ind/tech and Political state tied to actual ship costs. wink)

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

hundvig wrote:

I'd be okay with a bit more structure to fleet selection, but the rather rigid "ratio" system in BFG would be going a little too far IMO.
[...]
But yes, forcing players to field some escort craft for their battleships would be nice.

I was considering a "pyramid scheme", in which a fleet must include more ships at each size class than it has in the next level up... i.e.,

I've got one V.Large ship, so I have to have at least two Large ships.
I've got two Large ships, so I have to have at least three Medium ships.
I've got three Medium ships, so I have to have at least four Small ships.
I've got four Small ships, so I have to have at least five V.Small ships.

Thus, to put just one V.Large ship on the table, I have to have at least 14 other ships out as well...

...eek...

Maybe that's too harsh...

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com

Re: Pre-WW1 economies

Rory Hinnen wrote:

> I'm certainly not in favor of that. Seeing as MJ12 doesn't
> have an interest in selling miniatures,

Sssh... don't tell Brigade that!

big_smile

Daniel Kast
Majestic Twelve Games
cricket@mj12games.com