Bezerker Saberhagen wrote:I don't but the "first blood" argument. What you're neglecting to mention is that the low ROF/High DMG design does on average more damage when it gets its (less frequent) hits.
I did not neglect to mention that a 1/1/3 weapon does more damage when it hits: I explicitly stated that, over the long term, both weapons will do the same amount of damage.
If you were going for a prolonged sniping action it's a subjective matter whether you would want to hit infrequently with low DMG or (more) infrequently with (not so) low DMG.
It is not a subjective matter at all. Objectively, high-ROF weapons are more valuable than high-DMG weapons. Consider:
Side A has 10 ships, each with a single weapon that scores 1 point of damage 60% of the time.
Side B also has 10 ships, each with a single weapon that scores 3 points of damage 20% of the time.
Each ship takes 10 points of damage to kill. Damage is applied proportionally; e.g. if a ship takes 2 points of damage, its firepower is reduced to 80% of normal.
I just squared these two sides off against each other 10,000 times, and Side A won 5428 times -- i.e. the "high ROF" fleet was 19% more likely to win a given battle.
Just did it again: Side A wins 5534-4466.
Once more: Side A wins 5430-4570.
And again: Side A wins 5463-4537.
Once more, for good measure: Side A wins 5452-4547.
50,000 battles, and the "high ROF" fleet won 27,307 (55%).
are all multiplicative and therefore all commutative (and associative), you can do them in any order with no overall statistical effect and in sufficient number tending towards identical results.
What you are neglecting to consider is that firepower is not a constant. When a ship takes damage, its ability to hit back is reduced accordingly. So, the ability to reliably get hits is more useful (by a small but not insignificant margin) than the ability to cause more damage when hitting.
Side A, 5523-4476.
The real problem is that the IMP stat specifically is basically worthless [...] However, looking now at the mechanisms, I've realised that the exposition in that section is factually rubbish (maybe it's just intended as narrative)
Which part of rule 4.3 is "factually rubbish"?
Side A, 5425-4575.
You would not see that any of the fleets showed any specific advantage or disadvantage against any other type of ship regardless of the enemies size or shields.
So far, we've been focusing on the extremes: high ROF vs. high DMG. Granted, against a ship with zero shields, there is no difference between IMP and DMG. However, assuming the ship has shields, the same theory applies: high IMP weapons are more likely to cause some damage, and are therefore more effective. The higher the target's shields -- and thus the greater the disparity between less damage more often and more damage less often -- the more pronounced the effect: if we alter the conditions of the above matchup so that Side B scores 6 hits 10% of the time, Side A wins 5823-4177. (This makes Side A 39% more likely to win, instead of ~20%.)
As it is, Side A wins 5507-4493.
I have to say at this point that I think the basic combat mechanism is actually broken, going by the text of the rulebook I don't think it actually does what the designers seem to think it does.
Even granting your premise, I'm not sure I understand the problem. You've acknowledged the "narrative" effect of having separate weapon characteristics -- even absent any real game difference between them, why does this imply the combat mechanism is "broken"?
Side A wins 5421-4579.
In short, over time, a 3/1/1 weapon and a 1/1/3 weapon will inflict the same number of hits. But what this fails to account for is that the distribution of these hits has a small -- but real -- effect upon the course of the game.
And we finish with Side A winning again: 5401-4599.
Thus, over 100,000 battles, Side A wins 54,584 of them. This means the "high ROF" force is 20% more likely to win any given engagement.